By Domingo Amuchastegui
Economy Minister Alejandro Gil Fernández is one of the most talented heads in the current Cuban government.
So, what’s my gripe with him?
In a much-publicized presentation at the end of May, he highlighted two key proposals, of which he has been the main architect:
1. In what looks like rampant optimism, he reiterated that “Cuba does not renounce” a GDP growth forecast of around 6% in 2021. His argument rests on three premises: a. A gradual recovery of tourism, estimated for this year at 2.2 million visitors; b. increased nickel production; and c. rising sales of telecommunication services.
2. The National Economic and Social Development Plan through 2030, which wants the government to — in his own words — “advance in the medium and long-term strategy, in order to avoid improvisations”.
My objective here is to show the impossibility of achieving 6% growth, as well as the need to reduce the proportions and scope of the National Plan for Social Economic Development for 2030 — actually, to rethink it entirely in the face of current trends.
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