Analysis: The unachievable goal of 6%

By Domingo Amuchastegui

Economy Minister Alejandro Gil Fernández is one of the most talented heads in the current Cuban government.

So, what’s my gripe with him?

In a much-publicized presentation at the end of May, he highlighted two key proposals, of which he has been the main architect:

1. In what looks like rampant optimism, he reiterated that “Cuba does not renounce” a GDP growth forecast of around 6% in 2021. His argument rests on three premises: a. A gradual recovery of tourism, estimated for this year at 2.2 million visitors; b. increased nickel production; and c. rising sales of telecommunication services.

2. The National Economic and Social Development Plan through 2030, which wants the government to — in his own words — “advance in the medium and long-term strategy, in order to avoid improvisations”.

My objective here is to show the impossibility of achieving 6% growth, as well as the need to reduce the proportions and scope of the National Plan for Social Economic Development for 2030 — actually, to rethink it entirely in the face of current trends.

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